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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."