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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.